In a message not used since Hurricane Katrina, the National Weather Service has released updated warnings for the gulf coast, stating that “Persons not heeding evacuation orders in single-family one- or two-story homes will face certain death.” Forecasters are projecting up to 22 foot tall waves crashing ashore as Ike makes landfall near Galveston.

Here in North Texas, the NWS has issued an inland tropical wind warning and a flash flood watch. Forney is forecasted to receive rainfall of up to 2 inches per hour or more and northeast winds of up to 50 miles per hour with gusts up to 65 mph.

The impact Ike will have on the Forney area remains to be seen as there is still quite a bit of uncertainity in the path that has been forecast for Ike. The path you see on the news is generally an average, best-guess forecast created by combining and averaging a number of different possibilities. The map below actually shows you all of the various potential paths that have been forecast for Ike as of this afternoon (click the map for a larger version).

As you can see from the map, by 7PM on Saturday, Ike could be positioned mere miles east of Forney, which is the average position obtained from all the potential tracks. Other potential tracks take Ike through Downtown Dallas, but the majority of the forecasts take Ike through east Texas.

The white line on the map shows the area that will be impacted by 39-57 mph winds at 7PM on Saturday - Ike’s impact on Forney may be less severe than the impact on much of east Texas as the northeast side of the storm is the most intense, and Ike is projected to pass to our east.

While the center of Ike will not reach North Texas until sometime Saturday afternoon, given Ike’s enormeous size, when Ike is positioned over Houston at 7AM Saturday morning, tropical storm force winds will extend all the way to the southern edge of Kauman County, as shown in the following map.  The National Weather Service is warning residents of Kaufman County and other areas in North and East Texas to secure any outdoor furniture, trash cans, lawn chairs, etc. to prevent them from becoming projectiles in the strong winds that are expected. In addition, winds this strong can and will knock down power lines so make sure you have flashlights (with fresh batteries), snacks that do not require electricity to prepare, a full tank of gas (gas pumps don’t work without electricity) and other emergency preparedness materials on hand, just in case. Also, don’t forget that most cordless phones will not work without electricity, so make sure your cell phone is fully charged and you have an “old fashioned” corded telephone to use in case you lose power.

Flash flooding is possible, so the NWS is warning everyone to “turn around, don’t drown” - if you see water over the road, do not attempt to drive through it - it takes only a few inches of rushing flood water to carry your vehicle off the road. Also, tropical cyclone tornadoes are possible, although the NWS has indicated that they generally occur on the northeast side of the center of the storm, so they may not impact Forney. These types of tornadoes form with little warning and move very quickly, so make sure you know what to do if a tornado is spotted near your home.

Hurricane Ike at Sunset, 9/11/08

The tropical storm wind warning is in effect from 6AM Saturday morning until 1AM Sunday morning; while the winds are forecast to die down by 1AM on Sunday, the rain will most likely continue throughout Sunday morning so anyone with outdoor activities or travel planned on Saturday is strongly urged to reconsider.

Also, if you have friends or family evacuating from the coast, the Dallas Convention Center is now full. Evacuees are encouraged to contact friends or family members in the area to arrange for a place to stay. Within the Dallas area, dial 211 for information about local shelters that are open and accepting evacuees.For up to the minute updates about Hurricane Ike and its impact on Dallas, as well as information about the evacuation, WFAA, Channel 8 has setup a Hurricane Ike blog that they are frequently updating.

The Red Cross is currently sheltering approximately 1500 people impacted by Hurricane Gusav and they are preparing themselves to help shelter thousands more families displaced by Hurricane Ike. Please consider donating to the Red Cross - in addition to hurricanes and other large-scale natural disasters, local Red Cross chapters also assist those who are displaced by house fires, floods and other smaller events that we often never even hear about.

Now is the time to make sure your family is prepared for this storm - be prepared, stay safe and we’ll keep everyone updated as the storm moves through our area.

Photo credits:

• Storm tracks - Stormpulse.com
• Hurricane Ike at Sunset - Major Chad E. Gibson, US Air Force Hurricane Hunter

Welcome to Twenty Peaceful Minutes (20PM) - a community website for Forney, Texas. In addition to this blog, 20PM is home to the Forney discussion forums, which you may reach by clicking the Forney discussion forum link or going to http://20pm.net/forums; also, considering signing up for email or newsreader (RSS feed) notifications of new posts to the 20PM blog!